John Healey has deployed military-style security measures inside the Treasury in an attempt to stop Budget leaks, as the Chancellor battles to keep control of the narrative in the final ten days before his first statement on 28 October.
The new regime, reported this weekend, sharply restricts who can see the most sensitive tax and spending papers in the closing stages of Budget preparation. It follows a fortnight in which a steady stream of measures, from a bank surcharge rise to help with energy bills, has reached the newspapers before reaching MPs.
An old Whitehall disease
Leaks of tax and spending decisions have become as much a part of Britain's annual Budget ritual as the ceremonial red box lifted on the steps of Downing Street. The consequences, though, can be serious. Hugh Dalton resigned as chancellor in 1947 after whispering a single Budget detail to a journalist on his way into the Commons chamber, and market-watchers still point to the damage done when major fiscal decisions dribble out without context.
Allies of Mr Healey say the concern this autumn is commercial as much as political. With 30-year gilt yields at 6 per cent, their highest since 1998, the Treasury fears that half-briefed measures, stripped of the OBR forecasts designed to accompany them, could move markets in the wrong direction at the worst possible moment.
The Crackdown at a Glance
- The Treasury has introduced military-style security measures to prevent Budget leaks.
- Access to the most sensitive tax and spending papers has been tightened in the final fortnight.
- The Chancellor delivers his first Budget on Wednesday 28 October.
- Reported measures include a bank surcharge rise, business rates relief and energy bill support.
- Hugh Dalton resigned as chancellor in 1947 over a single Budget indiscretion.
The rumour mill grinds on
The clampdown has not stopped the speculation. Reports in recent days have put a rise in the bank surcharge, a higher business rates threshold for small shops, a crackdown on VAT collection by online marketplaces and a freeze in fuel duty all in play for 28 October. Treasury officials refuse to confirm or deny any of it, insisting only that the Chancellor will meet his fiscal rules.
Discipline before delivery
For Downing Street, the security drive is about more than secrecy. Andy Burnham's government has staked its credibility on the claim that this Budget will be honest about the pressures facing the public finances, after the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that vague plans would leave the statement a "work of fiction". A chaotic final week of leaks and u-turns would cut directly against that message.
Whether the new regime holds remains to be seen. Whitehall's ability to keep a Budget secret has rarely survived contact with a long Sunday papers deadline, and with ten days to go, the Chancellor's silent Treasury will be tested like never before.