The flagship policy document at the heart of Kemi Badenoch's relaunch overstates the cost of net zero by nearly 500 billion pounds after figures were apparently double-counted on a spreadsheet.
The error in The Right Way, the 100-page diagnosis of Britain's problems that Mrs Badenoch presented at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham on Wednesday, was identified by the climate analysis website Carbon Brief. The document claims that the Climate Change Committee put the gross economic cost of net zero at 1.4 trillion pounds, falling to 957 billion pounds once savings are taken into account. The committee's figures in fact total 478 billion pounds, roughly half what the Conservative document asserts.
A spokesman for the Climate Change Committee said: "We don't recognise this number. The committee has previously offered to meet with Ms Badenoch and talk her through our advice. That offer is, of course, still open."
The Costing Row at a Glance
- The Right Way, a 100-page policy document, was the centrepiece of Mrs Badenoch's Birmingham conference.
- It claims net zero's gross cost is 1.4 trillion pounds, or 957 billion pounds after savings.
- Carbon Brief found the Climate Change Committee's figures actually total about 478 billion pounds.
- The discrepancy appears to stem from accidental double counting on a spreadsheet.
- In her foreword, Mrs Badenoch wrote that "as an engineer" she is used to correctly diagnosing problems.
- The CCC says it does not recognise the figure and has renewed its offer to brief the Tory leader.
An engineer's diagnosis
The blunder is acutely embarrassing for the Conservative leader because of the terms in which she framed the document. In her foreword, Mrs Badenoch wrote that "as an engineer" she was accustomed to correctly diagnosing problems before attempting to fix them, and The Right Way was sold to delegates as a precise, unsparing audit of the British state.
Net zero has become one of the defining dividing lines of her leadership. Mrs Badenoch has promised to scrap what she calls unaffordable climate targets, a position that delighted much of the Birmingham hall but placed her at odds with the Government's advisers and with some in her own party's dwindling band of environmentalists.
A difficult end to the conference season
The disclosure caps an awkward post-conference period for the Conservatives, who remain on about one in five voters in national polling, behind both Labour and Reform UK. Mrs Badenoch used the week to rule out any deal with Nigel Farage, telling the BBC she would rather fight another election than govern with a party she described as "neck deep in scandal".
Conservative sources last night played down the error as a presentational slip that did not alter the party's argument. Opponents were less charitable, noting that a document billed as the product of engineering rigour had failed at arithmetic. The CCC's invitation to Birmingham, still open, may now be harder to decline.