Ukraine's central bank has put immobilised Russian money back at the centre of next year's war budget. Andriy Pyshnyy, governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, said today that frozen Russian assets are being discussed as a way to cover a gap in the 2027 accounts that Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky has put at 32.6 billion dollars.
Pyshnyy was speaking to Interfax-Ukraine on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings. He said IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has confirmed that partners must give assurances the gap, as checked by the Fund, will be covered. The IMF, he added, is cautious about its own mandate, but it is in the room when Europeans talk about using immobilised assets in a form they can live with, including the question of whether a scheme would load Ukraine with extra interest.
What is already promised, and what is not
The 2027 budget assumes 52.6 billion dollars of external financing. Only about 20 billion dollars of that is confirmed. In Brussels this month President Volodymyr Zelensky, counting defence, asked for an extra 70 billion euros for 2027. EU diplomats told Politico that leaders are preparing a support package of roughly 45 billion euros by the end of this year, guaranteed on the current EU budget: about two-thirds of what Kyiv requested. How to structure it is due when leaders meet on 26 November, after the Commission sets out options.
The politics of who pays are already familiar. Czechia and Slovakia have indicated they will opt out, as they did from the 90 billion euro package agreed last December. Hungary is expected to do the same. The countries that carry the largest share of support for Ukraine will be asked to carry this one too, in the middle of a fight over the EU's next long-term budget.
The 2027 Numbers
- Ukraine's prime minister puts the unverified financing gap at 32.6 billion dollars.
- The 2027 budget assumes 52.6 billion dollars from abroad. About 20 billion dollars is confirmed.
- Zelensky has asked for an extra 70 billion euros. The EU is discussing a loan of about 45 billion euros.
- Euroclear in Belgium holds about 185 billion euros of frozen Russian assets.
- Leaders are due to look at the structure of any new loan on 26 November.
Belgium, and the money that does not move
The obstacle has a name and a postcode. About 185 billion euros of Russian sovereign assets sit at Euroclear in Brussels. Belgian prime minister Bart De Wever has said he does not believe the Commission will reopen new transactions that would send that stock to Ukraine. He has not ruled out other leaders trying. He criticised Dutch prime minister Rob Jetten for saying, on the radio, that he wants to "take that money", and he warned that even public talk of using the assets can have legal consequences.
De Wever's line is that last year's argument was settled when leaders chose a 90 billion euro loan for 2026 and 2027 instead of a reparations loan backed by the assets. Kyiv's answer is that the 90 billion is not enough, and that the older G7 scheme, which advanced 50 billion dollars against the future profits of the frozen stock, allocates only 1.4 billion dollars to 2027. Most of that 50 billion is scheduled for 2025 and 2026. Officials are now discussing a second round, whether by discounting profits further into the future or by putting the assets into higher-yielding instruments. Pyshnyy said he is optimistic the assets will go on being used, and that the positions of the IMF and the European Central Bank have shifted over time.
Britain has already chosen a side in public. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband has urged the EU to unlock the frozen stock, arguing that hesitation in Washington leaves Europe with the decision. Last week's diplomacy, including Zelensky's backing for a return to three-way talks, does not pay for 2027. The budget gap does not wait for a ceasefire.