The London market is shut for Sunday, and the week it closed is easier to read than the one it opened. The FTSE 100 finished Friday at 10,729.78, up 7.71 points, or 0.07 per cent, on the day. Over the five sessions it added 0.4 per cent. The 10-year gilt yield ended at 5.299 per cent, down from 5.318 per cent on Thursday and from 5.376 per cent a week earlier, on 27 October.
That is a calmer close than Friday morning's note allowed for. Shell's quarter had led a cautious open, and the question then was how much debt the Treasury would have to sell after John Healey's first Budget. By the bell, London had held a small gain while New York sold off. Disappointing figures from Amazon and Intel hit technology shares. The FTSE, with less of its weight in that trade, was a shelter. AstraZeneca and BT were among the names that kept the index above the waterline.
What Friday's session actually did
The FTSE 100 opened at 10,721.51, touched 10,778.72, and closed well off that high. The low was 10,715.93. It was a drift, then a small plus. The FTSE 250 did not share it. The mid-cap index fell 220.80 points, 0.9 per cent, to 24,453.36. For the week the 250 was still up 0.9 per cent, so Friday was a giving-back rather than a change of mind. The AIM All-Share fell 10.37 points, 1.4 per cent, to 753.08, and was up 0.9 per cent on the week.
Gilt yields have eased in a straight line since the Budget. The 10-year par yield was 5.463 per cent on 19 October, 5.427 on 20 October, and 5.299 on Friday. Investors have treated Healey's statement as a package that did not add a fresh shock. The headroom figure the Treasury is working with, about 15 billion pounds, is unchanged by a quiet Friday. It is also not large, if the Bank has to stay tight or if oil moves again.
Thursday's Bank meeting is the next price
Bank Rate is 3.75 per cent. The Monetary Policy Committee announces on Thursday 5 November. A Sunday market column cannot usefully pretend to know the vote. What it can say is the list in front of the nine members: a Budget that paid households 100 pounds and raised the bank surcharge, a gilt yield still above 5 per cent, defence spending Healey says is now fully funded, and an energy market that the Iran war has not given back. Sunday's interview added a wage answer and a defence answer, and neither changes the Thursday arithmetic on its own.
The Week London Just Closed
- FTSE 100 Friday close: 10,729.78, up 7.71 points. Week: plus 0.4 per cent.
- FTSE 250 Friday close: 24,453.36, down 0.9 per cent. Week: plus 0.9 per cent.
- 10-year gilt, 30 October: 5.299 per cent. On 29 October it was 5.318 per cent.
- Bank Rate: 3.75 per cent. Next decision: Thursday 5 November.
- Shell's quarter, reported into Friday, remains the largest single company story of the week.
Monday's open will tell us whether the weekend's politics, a Chancellor who will not date the young workers' wage pledge and a prime minister open to an apology ahead of the Commonwealth summit, moves a price. The larger test is Thursday. Until then the gilt at 5.299 per cent and the FTSE at 10,729.78 are the marks to beat.